Everyone agrees Joe Burrow is the man. All the swag, all the moxie, all the weapons, all the success. But how good is he really? Here’s where he’s been, where he’s at, and where I think he’s going.
Where he’s been
Fairly well known at this point but for some context; Burrow sat behind four-year starter J.T. Barrett at Ohio State then lost the QB battle to Dwayne Haskins before transferring to LSU. Mediocre start to his career in the bayou throwing 16 touchdowns in 13 games but since then… he’s been an absolute rocket ship.
Where he’s at
60 tuds and a national title in his final season is pretty good. Instantly transforming a franchise that earned the first overall pick is great. Taking that same team to the Super Bowl in his second year and the AFC ship in his third is damn near impossible. Not entirely alone as Zac Taylor, Jamarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jessie Bates etc… deserve a ton of credit but 9 is unquestionably the most important aspect of Cincy’s renaissance.
Since drafting 9, the team that had never won a road playoff game has won 3. The team that hadn’t won any playoff game in 3 decades is 5-2 the last two years and won back-to-back division titles for the first time ever. Burrow and Chase have been at the top of jersey sales and the much-maligned front office is making moves. Finally selling naming rights to the stadium and building a bubble to serve as an indoor being the two most notable. Business is booming.
The receivers in Cincy are ridiculous, but every elite QB has elite weapons. Don’t forget that in his rookie campaign in 2020 with an old AJ Green, a rookie Tee Higgins, and Ty Boyd as the X; Burrow was sporting an 89.9 QBR with 13 tds in the 10 games he played. All with the worst o-line the NFL has ever seen. Leading him to serval beheadings before inevitably going out with a severe knee injury. Has he been better since drafting Chase? Of course. But he was plenty good before Jamarr and before Tee Higgins emerged as the best second option in the NFL.
In 2021, he lead the NFL in completion percentage (70.4%) and average depth of target (8.9 yds). Throwing it further than anyone per pass and still completing the highest percentage of passes is wild. This year, the sweet spot of the offensive line was weeks 5-13. All the new pieces had developed some chemistry and no one had got hurt. During that stretch, Joey B was averaging around 300 yards per game while sporting a 70% completion percentage. Way above league average. I believe that’s his baseline with even a decent group up front. I mean, he’s been sacked 124 times in his 3 years and Burrow still has the highest completion percentage of all time. In summary, get the man an o-line.
Where he’s going
We all know he’s not as dynamic as Patty Mahomes or Josh Allen and he’ll never get the same hype because of it. Not the most athletically gifted but plenty athletic. Doesn’t have the flashy arm but enough arm strength and his mobility is easily the most underrated aspect of his game. Most importantly he’s a certified killer. Mahomes is better. But give me Joe over everyone else.
Hopefully this will be a normal offseason as he has yet to have one in the NFL. An appendicitis knocked him out of training camp, and he rehabbed all offseason the year before. An uneventful offseason (except maybe a contract extension) for Burrow and he should be poised for another step forward. Possible MVP? Regardless, I think the best is yet to come.
Championship in Cincinnati would be so crazy 🙏🏻
Follow me @BrodysBlog on Twitter and check out my article about why his receiver isn’t going anywhere!
References:
@Footballism & @Bengals
Best completion percentage since 2020. StatMuse. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2023, from https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-completion-percentage-since-2020
Joe Burrow 2022 splits. Pro. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2023, from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BurrJo01/splits/2022/
Joe Burrow College stats, school, draft, gamelog, splits: College football at sports. Reference.com. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2023, from https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-burrow-1.html
Joe Burrow splits. StatMuse. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2023, from https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/player/joe-burrow-28175/splits
Premium stats. Premium Stats. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2023, from https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/2022/REG/joe-burrow/28022/passing
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